Sep 11, 2023

Preface: If you’re not using Banana Gun yet, use my referral as thanks for information ye shall receive: https://t.me/BananaGunSniper_bot?start=ref_jasmine


CT is bananas over this drop, and for good reason. I shall condense info into a neat lil field report for you, considering it's probably definitely all you'll hear about this week.


Banana Gun If you haven't used Banana, aren't aware of its merits or live under a pile of rocks/in a pineapple under the sea, you ought to read this article written by some loser: https://www.mvhq.io/blog/shits-n-gigs-3-42ayqc


Essentially, it's the best coin sniper bot on the market and has manual trading functionality too.


Why this token is important...

Which other bots snipe and trade tokens for you and operate via user-friendly social platforms like Discord and Telegram? Let's see... Maestro, Unibot, NONE, WAGIEBOT, etc.


Now, what market capitalisation have such tokens reached? $UNIBOT, although extremely overvalued, attained the first mover advantage and peaked at $200 million (!!), with $NONE, a more recent Discord-based competitor, reaching $20 million. Maestro is the undisputed (until now?) market leader in terms of users and volume, but never launched a token, presumably due to generating sufficiently lucrative revenue in trading fees alone, nullifying any imperative to profit share (thus enabling $UNIBOT's glorious run, which had less than 1/3 of Maestro's userbase for much of its existence).


Now that's out of the way, let's delve into presale rounds, numbers, user base, predictions and potential strategies.




Presale was conducted on Friday 8 Sep. There were four rounds, shown below.


As someone who is an OG user of Banana Gun (since early July), I will say that attaining presale for all rounds was surprisingly easy. Despite this, only ~200 users (out of many more eligible) minted 2 or more NFTs which were mintable through completion of simple bot-based trading tasks. One reason I’m bullish about this team is that they made an effort to reward consistent users who engaged closely with the team - to qualify for the NFT campaign, I didn’t even need to modify my trading behaviour! Another reason I’m bullish (although somewhat frustrated ) is that they took steps to nullify advantages gained by those cycling through wallets (sybils), as shown below regarding round 2 allocations.





ETA: 18:00-21:00 UTC on Monday 11 September.


The launch numbers are

  • Raise: 800E
  • Max allocation: 1E
  • Presale price: ~$0.65 (subject to ETH/USD price)
  • Launch price: ~$0.65 (subject to ETH/USD price)
  • Starting market cap: ~$1.63m (based on circulating tokens)
  • Starting FDV: ~6.5m (based on total tokens)


It’s worth noting that round 1 and 2 allocated wallets were being sold OTC for 5-6E (ie. an entry price of 6-7E, when you account for the unpaid 1E allocation). This tells us that general market sentiment expects at least 6-7x on launch.


How do we get these numbers?


Presale token supply: 2,000,000 (out of 10,000,000)

Total presale raise: 800E


Assuming ETH=$1630


2,000,000/800 = 2,500 tokens per 1E allocation

1,630/2,500 = $0.65 price per token (on launch)


7,500,000 tokens are locked on launch, leaving circulating supply of 2,500,000


2,500,000*0.65 = $1.63m (launch mcap based on circulating supply)

10,000,000*0.65 = $6.5m (FDV based on total supply)


Verify muh calculations at https://docs.bananagun.io/the-banana-token/tokenomics



User Base

You guys knew this was coming, by now we’re aware that Jasmine adores a Dune dashboard for her weekend leisure:


Let’s focus on the Trading Bot Wars panel, that way we ensure data is being pulled for each bot using consistent methodology for the most accurate comparison. In the pics below, you can see that in a very short time frame, Banana Gun has amassed a considerable market share in terms of raw user data. Note that a significant proportion of Banana users (not all) use the multi-wallet function, so if we remove 1/3 from the 2,390 below, we’re left with ~1,600 daily users. This is still a greater number of users than Unibot, a much older, volume-battered, CT-shilled, $200m-mcap’d bot. Pretty neat, huh?


The Banana Gun user base holds up. It’s quite simply the best pre-launch sniper out there (for now), with competitors lacking both the functionality or sheer loyalty of users to facilitate high bundle bribes. I predict it’ll maintain its market position as the premier sniping bot for at least 2-4 weeks. With that in mind…




Predictions and Trading

Let’s revisit some of the facts I peppered into the article above + more in short form…

  • UNIBOT, although overvalued, attained a mcap of $200m.
  • Competitors such as $NONE and $WAGIEBOT, with comparable spot trading and inferior sniping functionality, reached $20m each.
  • In mere months, Banana Gun has attained a userbase equal to or greater than Unibot’s (depending on the day), which is a much more renowned, shilled and established bot.
  • People were willing to buy round 1/2 presale wallets for 5-6E, indicating an expectation of at least 6-7x.
  • Banana is the undisputed bundled sniping leader - it dominates block 0 on most launches, an on-chain statement, I’ll say. The chain doesn’t lie!
  • We’ve had multiple (>10) coins reach $10-20m market caps within the last two weeks. Watch out for bear market fud that's largely meaningless and salt-induced.
  • 605E was raised in round 1 (with only ~200 people qualifying via NFTs), therefore I expect stacked KOLs, shillers, CT partnerships. Shilluminati/10.
  • User adoption is incentivised through revenue share - 2/2 out of 4/4 taxes and a portion of bot usage fees are paid to users. Ape to earn will offer volume-based income.
  • Team has rewarded OG and consistent users regardless of wallet/volume size, and has taken steps to remove sybil/wallet farmers from presale.
  • Although anecdotal, I’ve had close communication with the founders/team in recent months and trust their judgement.


With all of this in mind, I’m predicting 5x from launch within minutes, ie. to circulating mcap of $8.2m. I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes 10x imminently (ie. $16m mcap). Full disclosure: I have presale allocation which I will be looking to add to (with size) under $10m mcap. I wouldn’t necessarily advise scalping this due to 4/4 tax. I also wouldn't advise sniping, given the team warned against it. If I trust anybody's ability to suppress sniper activity, it's the developers of the most-used sniping bot. For example, it's entirely possible that the team WLs only Banana-routed transactions and sets an incremental max buy/max tx - this scenario would render tipping miners for prio a fool's errand.


It’s not inconceivable that this reaches the $20-50m range when analysing preceding coins, just be aware that FDV will be roughly 4x mcap and this is a more accurate metric of comparison given competitors’ FDV=mcap. Overall, I’m bullish.


I see Banana maintaining market dominance for at least 2-4 weeks due to its head start and community trust. Thereafter, other snipers may spawn which will dilute market share, particularly if high net worth wallets facilitate block 0 successes.


Best of luck out there, feel free to drop questions below and I’ll answer to the best of my ability. No, I’m not sponsored by Banana. Yes, please use my referral: https://t.me/BananaGunSniper_bot?start=ref_jasmine


Follow me on Tweeeeeetur: https://x.com/jasm_eth



Addendum: Airdrop

There is an additional airdrop at some point in the future for those who collected the NFTs. Airdrop A comprises 100,000 tokens and rewards those who minted the challenge NFTs. After some mathematising, I’ve calculated that 1 point = 3.5 $BANANA. The maximum you can earn is 350 $BANANA.


As seen in the tokenomics breakdown above, an additional (insignificant) 20,000 tokens are reserved for social tasks - check the Banana Gun twitter for further info on this.


Note that the unlocking of 120,000 tokens via airdrop will increase the circulating mcap by 5%, bringing it closer to the FDV.