Art Blocks is a different animal than PFPs, and therefore should be approached in a different way. It’s probably fair to classify PFP trading as day trading and Art Blocks as swing trading, while it’s become more and more obvious that the higher the mint price, the faster the exit needs to be. 13 Curated projects minted out at 1 ETH or higher, and currently 3 have a floor higher than mint (23%). On the other end of the spectrum, amazingly all 40 projects that minted out at 0.3 ETH or lower are holding a floor price above mint. 40 out of 40 is 100%.
That’s not to say that there isn’t a way to profit with a high mint, but rather water finds its own level. As time goes on the mint price holds no weight when looking at floor prices. During the peak bull run on August 25th 2021, Geometry Runners minted out at the top of the Dutch Auction at 5 ETH, and the floor ran up to about 14 ETH the same day. By September 1st the floor was under 6.5 ETH. On September 22nd 2021, the floor was back down to 5 ETH with 313 listed. That was the last “break even” point. Skulptuur minted out at 5 ETH on September 26th 2021, and ran up to a 7.7 ETH floor the same day. By the next day we were under mint and haven’t seen a “break even” point since. As of right now none of the top 16 Curated collections were minted out above 0.75 ETH.
This space moves so fast and right now there are a lot more “flippers” in the market than a year ago, but I still believe listings are a very good indicator. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Fidenzas is that 165/999 were listed the day that it minted out, which was the most that were ever listed. A project ran from a 0.17 ETH mint, to a 294 ETH floor in 79 days, and never had more than 17% of the total supply listed. On the opposite end of the spectrum a project like Pigments from Darien Brito ran from a 1 ETH mint to a 18 ETH floor in 19 days. However listings started at 25% and ran up to 34% as the floor was moving up. The floor is currently 1.9 ETH.
Looking at more recent Art Blocks Curated projects, Gazers by Matt Kane is one that might be ready for a blowoff top. The project minted out at 0.25 ETH and ran up to a 1.4E floor. Much like Fidenza despite the floor increasing exponentially the listing never got higher than 16%. Another point of interest is that in the higher floor projects, the top 10 owners control over 20% of the supply. In theory it makes sense, as whales will continue to buy their own bags and stabilize the floor. Gazers is sitting at a healthy 29%.
A lower priced project that might have another run in it is montreal friend scale. The project minted out at 0.22 ETH, and the floor ranged between 0.17 ETH and 0.28 ETH for about two weeks. After a couple sweeps, the floor went over 4x to 0.9E in just four days. Since then the floor has bled out, but listings have gone down as well. The collection also has the top 10 owners holding over 20% of the collection and an impressive 419 diamond handers (people who have never sold). Being a music collection in Art Blocks, it has a unique aspect to it.
Another lower priced project, Cosmic Reef has some of the same characteristics. It’s just under 80% diamond handers with the top 10 holders increasing their holdings (up to 36%). We hit a 3.6 ETH floor during the last pump, but have since pulled back to a 1.38 ETH floor. However listings continue to fall as we are down to just 37 out of 1024 listed. It’s not going to take too much activity to see the floor rise quickly.
Chromie Squiggles continues to outperform the rest of Art Blocks Curated, and has held up extremely well despite the massive pullback across the rest of the Curated collection. We hit a 12 ETH floor and it is further cementing itself as a true NFT bluechip. Not only is it the first of a huge generative art collection, but it has the meme-ability to keep it successful in all market conditions. In my opinion It’s hard to find a better representative of NFTs, something that seems so dumb and simple from an outsiders perspective, but there is so much value that is hidden behind the image. At the end of the day, whether it goes to a 100 ETH floor or ends up at 0, it’ll make perfect sense.